Global Thermal Coal Market Analysis and 3-Month Forecast – April 2025

By GGT Petrochemical – Trading Intelligence Blog

Executive Summary

As we move through the second quarter of 2025, the thermal coal market is experiencing complex yet regionally varied dynamics. Market sentiment remains cautious, shaped by inconsistent demand recovery, geopolitical frictions, regulatory uncertainty, and logistical disruptions across key exporting countries. This report examines current pricing, supply-demand balances, regional differences, freight implications, and provides a detailed price outlook through July 2025.

1. Asia-Pacific: Market Pulse and Key Price Drivers

🔸 Indonesia & Australia – Low-CV Coal in Demand

Indonesian and Australian ultra-low-calorific coal (3,400 kcal/kg GAR) continues to witness strong procurement interest from major Asian economies—particularly China, Vietnam, and India. Some miners reported that stocks of this grade were completely sold out by mid-April, pushing FOB offers up to $35/mt. Buyers showed active engagement, albeit with price sensitivity.

• 3,400 GAR FOB Kalimantan: Offers $34–$35/mt | Bids $33/mt
• 4,200 GAR FOB Kalimantan: Offers $48.50/mt | Bids $47/mt

🔸 Mid- to High-CV Coal Struggles for Buyers

While ultra-low CV coal finds buyers, the mid- and high-CV segments (4,600–6,000 kcal/kg GAR) have suffered from tepid demand and aggressive price negotiation. Indian and Chinese buyers are showing reluctance to accept higher offers, forcing many producers to lower premiums and match previously agreed levels.

🔸 Logistics & Weather Impact

Persistent rainfall in Sumatra and Kalimantan (Indonesia) and in Newcastle (Australia) has disrupted barge loading, vessel berthing, and overall mine-site logistics. As of late April, some vessels faced 2–5 days of delay in loading due to port congestion and weather.

2. Atlantic Basin & Europe: Regulatory and Demand Pressure

🔸 European Demand Falls

Europe’s thermal coal market remains under pressure. Although prices held steady, demand has softened due to greater solar power integration and warmer weather. Polish electricity generation from coal fell to 62% (down 5% YoY) as solar output rose by over 30% in March.

• CIF ARA (6,000 NAR): $92.80/mt (+$0.35 WoW)
• FOB Richards Bay (5,500 NAR): $74.25/mt (−$0.25 WoW)
• European Blended Price: $85.65/mt

🔸 Carbon Pricing Effect

High carbon allowance prices continue to exert downward pressure on thermal coal usage in Western Europe, especially in Germany and the Netherlands, where coal plants are operating at reduced baseloads.

3. Americas: Mixed Signals from North & South

🔸 USA – Stable but Uncompetitive

U.S. coal prices remained mostly stable, with Baltimore and New Orleans FOB values seeing marginal corrections due to muted export competitiveness. U.S. coal remains relatively expensive compared to Indonesian and Russian alternatives, especially in Asian markets.

• Baltimore 6,900 NAR (3%S): $73.90/mt
• New Orleans 6,000 NAR (3%S): $67.90/mt

🔸 Colombia – Rising Volumes, Falling Prices

Colombian thermal coal exports rose sharply in volume but hit a one-year low in price, dropping to $77/mt FOB. The aggressive pricing suggests Colombian producers are prioritizing liquidity over margin amid declining European orders.

🇷🇺 4. Russia & the Black Sea: Political Tensions vs. Market Pragmatism

🔸 Russia Maintains Presence

Despite sanctions and routing complications, Russian coal continues to find buyers, particularly in Turkey, China, and India. Pacific and Baltic markets showed mixed price movement:

• Russia Baltic (6,000 NAR, 0.5%S): $68.50/mt (+$0.50)
• Russia Pacific (6,300 GAR, 0.3%S): $77.50/mt (−$1.50)
• Black Sea (6,000 NAR, 1%S): $74.00/mt (flat)

5. Freight & Chartering Trends

Freight remains a key price determinant, particularly for Asian and African destinations.

🔹 Panamax Trends

• Richards Bay – India (WCI): $12.80/mt (+$0.40)
• Newcastle – Japan: $16.35/mt (+$0.10)

🔹 Supramax Freight in Asia

Rates softened slightly due to the regional overhang of available tonnage and subdued cargo volumes. Expect tightness in mid-May as charterers scramble post-holiday demand surge.

6. 3-Month Price Forecast: May–July 2025

Conclusion

The global thermal coal market remains in a state of controlled uncertainty. Supply-side disruptions are being met with hesitant demand, creating volatility in spot and term pricing. Asian buyers continue to drive growth in low-CV coal, while the Atlantic Basin wrestles with regulatory headwinds and decarbonization pressures. For stakeholders like GGT Petrochemical and its partners, agility in sourcing, freight management, and regional focus will be critical in maintaining profitability through Q3 2025.
Prepared by GGT Petrochemical Analysis Team